Frontex, the EU’s external border protection agency, reports a 31% drop in illegal migrant crossings in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period one year ago.
Crossings fell to nearly 33,600 with a decline reported across every single route leading to Europe.
The biggest fall was observed along the Western Balkan route, -64%.
Why are crossings dropping along the Western Balkan route?
“The drop in crossings could be due to multiple factors: Increased policing of borders by Balkan countries, harsh winter conditions that make the journey hard and awareness of widespread risks of human rights violations,” says Helena Hahn, Migration and Diversity analyst at the European Policy Centre.
She also pointed to geopolitical factors, such as “the change in regime in Syria, which led to a 17% decrease in asylum applications in 2024,” adding however that arrivals might rise again “towards the end of the summer and in Autumn.”
Crossing attempts into Spain from Africa down by nearly a third
A significant drop, -30%, was also observed on the Western African route, which connects Senegal, Mauritania, The Gambia and Western Sahara to Spain’s Canary Islands.
Similarly, a 29% fall was reported in crossings along the Eastern Mediterranean route, mostly leading to Cyprus, Greece and Bulgaria from Afghanistan, Sudan and Egypt.
The third sharpest fall, -26%, was on the Central Mediterranean route, from western and central Africa through Niger and Libya across the Central Mediterranean towards Europe, in particular Italy.
Eastern Mediterranean busiest route for illegal migration into Europe
With 9,267 crossing attempts, the Eastern Mediterranean route ranked as the preferred extra-European pathway for illegal migrants.
The Western African path follows closely with 9,205 attempts, primarily from Mali, Senegal and Guinea.
The third most active route was the Central Mediterranean (8,542), mostly taken by Bangladeshis, Pakistanis and Syrians.
The United Kingdom however seems to remain the final destination in Europe for thousands of migrants, as Frontex reported 11,000 illegal crossing attempts in the first four months of 2025 from France towards the other side of the Channel.
Video editor • Mert Can Yilmaz
