President-elect Trump has begun making selections to fill Cabinet positions within his incoming administration and betting markets have identified a clear front-runner for the Treasury secretary role.
Scott Bessent, the founder and CEO of investment firm Key Square Group who previously taught at Yale University, has been a key adviser to Trump’s campaign.
Traders on Polymarket give Bessent an 83% chance of becoming the Treasury secretary nominee, while he has an 82% chance on Kalshi’s prediction market.
Those figures are well ahead of the next closest competitors for the role, including several key Trump campaign figures.
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On Polymarket, Trump transition team co-chair and Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick has an 8% chance, while billionaire hedge fund manager and Trump donor John Paulson has a 6.5% chance, and former U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer is at 1.9%.
Kalshi has Paulson with a 7% chance of becoming the Treasury secretary nominee, while former SEC chair Jay Clayton has a 3% chance and Lutnick 1%.
Paulson removed himself from consideration for the role on Tuesday.
“My complex financial obligations would prevent me from holding an official position in President Trump’s administration at this time,” Paulson said in a statement. “However, I intend to remain actively involved with the President’s economic team and helping in the implementation of President Trump’s outstanding policy proposals.”
It’s unclear how soon Trump will name his Treasury secretary nominee, though he is moving quickly to line up nominees for key roles in the White House.
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If the betting markets prove to be correct in their current assessment of Trump’s Treasury secretary pick, Bessent would bring policy perspectives that bridge the traditional Republican economic policies with Trump’s preference for policies like tariffs.
He has long supported the economic policies that comprised the Republican Party’s platform prior to Trump’s rise, but has also been supportive of Trump’s use of tariffs in trade negotiations.
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In an appearance on FOX Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria” last month, Bessent said that extending tax policies that are set to expire under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 as well as deregulation and expanded energy production would be key elements of the economic policy under a second Trump term.
At an event hosted by the Manhattan Institute earlier this year, Bessent suggested that Trump should pursue a three-point plan of targeting 3% economic growth, reducing the deficit to 3% of U.S. gross domestic product, and boosting domestic energy production by 3 million barrels of oil a day.
Bessent has also expressed support for cryptocurrency and said recently, “I have been excited about the president’s embrace of crypto and I think it fits very well with the Republican Party, crypto is about freedom and the crypto economy is here to stay.”
FOX Business’ Eleanor Terrett and Fox News’ Mark Meredith contributed to this report.
