Faced with American disengagement from Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron wants to open the debate on extending France’s nuclear umbrella to its EU partners.
The French President has opened up a highly strategic debate. With his European partners, Emmanuel Macron wants to explore the possibility of extending the protection of France’s nuclear deterrent to the EU.
In Europe, two countries have nuclear weapons: France and the United Kingdom. Paris is believed to have 290 warheads and London 225. But the two capitals do not have the same political legitimacy – the UK is no longer part of the EU – nor the same strategic room for manoeuvre.
“France has an arsenal that is considered autonomous”, explains Christophe Wasinski, professor at the Centre for Research and Studies in International Politics at the Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB). In other words, the French authorities are strictly sovereign when it comes to nuclear deterrence.
The situation is different for the United Kingdom because “Great Britain developed its arsenal in collaboration with the United States and it needs the infrastructure and assistance of the United States to be able to operate its nuclear arsenal. And a number of experts consider that if the United States were to oppose its use, Britain could not easily use its warheads”, adds Christophe Wasinski. So British sovereignty is not total.
The methods of use also differ between the two countries. British weapons can be launched from submarines, an option available to France. But Paris can also use fighter bombers to drop its atomic devices.
The debate on whether to extend the French or British umbrella is a response to the call from the likely next German Chancellor. Faced with American disengagement in Europe, Friedrich Merz wants to engage in dialogue with Paris and London, a call that marks a U-turn on the part of Berlin. Germany has always relied on the support of the United States to ensure its security.
A strategic review
Extending France’s nuclear deterrent would entail a profound political and doctrinal rethink. Paris plans to use nuclear weapons if its “vital interests” are threatened. Extending France’s nuclear deterrent would mean redefining its scope. The French President has already hinted in the past that these vital interests could have a European dimension.
But extending France’s nuclear deterrent also increases the likelihood of France being targeted.
“If we extend the nuclear umbrella, it means that we are prepared to use nuclear weapons to potentially protect a European state or a NATO state. But it also means that, in return, we are exposing ourselves to the risk of retaliation by a state”, stresses Christophe Wasinski.
For example, if France were to use the ultimate weapon in response to an attack on an EU member state, the attacking country might decide to target French territory.
“So, in a way, France would also be hostage to what it was proposing”, warns the ULB professor.
A sufficient arsenal?
This nuclear umbrella also raises the question of capabilities. If France has sufficient resources to act as a deterrent, is this arsenal enough to defend the EU?
“Nuclear weapons are still extremely powerful weapons that states currently have at their disposal. So they are capable of causing thousands, tens of thousands of deaths when fired, and of destroying very, very large areas. So the fact that we have a large or very large number of them doesn’t necessarily change the situation”, says Christophe Wasinski.
“Their destructive power is already such that possessing a few hundred nuclear weapons is already proving to be an extremely effective deterrent.”
Others, on the contrary, believe that the balance of power remains unfavourable in the face of Russia’s 4,380 warheads. But increasing Europe’s arsenal would mean increasing the number of missiles and delivery systems. To this we must add additional infrastructure in partner countries. This protection would come at a high cost.
ADVERTISEMENTThe French nuclear umbrella would be a way of giving concrete form to European strategic autonomy and solidarity between the 27 EU member states. However, it would also be necessary to determine who should decide whether to use nuclear weapons. On this point, Emmanuel Macron has insisted that it is up to the President of the Republic to decide.
