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Bosnia’s electoral authorities stripped Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik of his presidency Wednesday after a state-level appeals chamber upheld a verdict sentencing him to a six-year ban from politics.
The late February ruling by the Sarajevo-based Court of BiH over anti-constitutional conduct triggered a prolonged high-tension political crisis in the Western Balkan country that has since simmered down to a steady boil.
However, the heat was back on after the court’s appeals chamber confirmed the original verdict against Dodik, who holds the office of president of the Republika Srpska (RS), one of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s main administrative units.
This meant that the Central Electoral Committee, or CIK, had to open the procedure under electoral law of removing him from office and calling snap elections in the RS to fill the vacated position within 90 days.
Dodik, who reacted to Wednesday’s decision by stating it was “yet another sh*tshow from Sarajevo”, can appeal the Central Electoral Committee’s decision.
“There’s no surrender or giving up. Surrender is not an option,” Dodik said in a post on X. He has vowed to stay on as entity president regardless of CIK’s dismissal.
His legal representatives have already announced he will also open a separate case against the original ruling in front of the state-level Constitutional Court. It is unclear how long these processes might take. A general election in Bosnia is set for autumn 2026.
Meanwhile, Dodik has attempted to rally all Bosnian Serb political actors to stand behind him in defiance of the court decisions. However, the opposition parties have largely refused to do so so far.
The EU’s diplomatic service (EEAS) spokesperson said last Friday that the Court of BiH’s “verdict is binding and must be respected.”
“The EU calls on all parties to acknowledge the independence and impartiality of the court, and to respect and uphold its verdict,” the statement said.
In turn, Dodik has received support from Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.
Months-long pushback
Since February, Dodik has repeatedly rejected the verdict of one year in prison and barred him from politics for six years for going against the decisions of the country’s international peace envoy, Christian Schmidt, which constitutes a criminal act.
In the RS, he introduced new laws meant to ban the operation of state-level security and judicial institutions in what comprises about half of the Western Balkan country’s territory. The decisions have been temporarily suspended by the state-level Constitutional Court.
“As far as I’m concerned, that verdict doesn’t exist, and it is null and void,” Dodik told Euronews Serbia in a June interview.
Dodik has also continuously questioned the legitimacy of High Representative Schmidt, saying he acted against “imposed decisions” by the envoy whose mandate, Dodik claims, contradicts the Dayton Agreement, signed in 1995 to end the war in the country.
The agreement brought about the end of the war between the country’s three main ethnic groups — Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats — that began in 1992 during the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia, deemed as the bloodiest conflict on European soil since World War II.
The High Representative is meant to act as the chief arbiter in high-profile disputes and the key figure overseeing the implementation of the deal.
The peace agreement, parts of which act as the country’s constitution, split the country into two main administrative units, or entities: the Serb-majority RS and the Bosniak-Croat Federation of BiH (FBiH), partially overseen by an umbrella state-level government.
Meant to appease the former belligerents, it created a complicated system of checks and balances, said to be the world’s most complex democracy.
Dodik, who has served in various top roles, including the state-level presidency, for decades, has repeatedly called for the independence of the RS from the rest of Bosnia, fuelling fears of instability. He has been placed under US and British sanctions for his actions, but has had the steady support of Moscow.
Test of post-war stability
Dodik’s ongoing challenge to the High Representative and state-level institutions’ authority has been deemed to be the EU membership hopeful’s biggest test of post-war stability.
The Court of BiH issued a nationwide arrest warrant for Dodik in March. Since then, he travelled to neighbouring Serbia, Israel and Russia, where he attended the 9 May Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, organised by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Back home, tensions flared up once again in late April after state-level security agency inspectors tried to arrest Dodik, but were prevented from doing so.
While the details around the incident remained unclear, domestic media reported that SIPA agents left after “talking” to the RS police. Dodik later said he felt “fine and safe”.
The crisis over his potential arrest was somewhat defused in July, when Dodik voluntarily came in for questioning at the state-level prosecutor’s office, after which the warrant was dropped. According to Bosnian law, Dodik can pay a fine for each day of his one-year prison sentence instead of serving time in jail.
The European peacekeeping force in Bosnia, EUFOR, had stepped up the number of its troops in response to the tensions earlier this year.
In March, NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte pledged the military alliance’s “unwavering” support for Bosnia’s territorial integrity.
“Three decades after the Dayton Peace Agreement, I can tell you: NATO remains firmly committed to the stability of this region and to the security of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” Rutte said at the time. “We will not allow hard-won peace to be jeopardised.”
