Diplomats in Brussels have received “convincing” evidence showing Russia has built a factory in China to produce lethal drones.
The European Union is growing increasingly convinced that Russia is producing lethal drones in China to prop up the invasion of Ukraine, raising fresh questions on how far Beijing is willing to risk to abide by its “no-limits partnership” with Moscow.
The mounting concerns focus on a secret weapons programme that Russia has allegedly established in China’s Xinjiang province, which was first brought to light by Reuters in an exclusive investigation published in September.
The Reuters report described how a subsidiary of Almaz-Antey, a Russian state-owned arms company under EU and US sanctions, had “developed and flight-tested” a new model of a long-range drone “with the help of local specialists.” (The outlet was unable to determine the identity of the specialists but saw documents that confirmed the transfer of the made-in-China drones to the Russian city of Izhevsk)
The European External Action Service (EEAS), the bloc’s diplomatic arm, also received evidence from intelligence sources showing Russia had set up one factory on Chinese soil to assemble drones that could potentially be deployed to target Ukraine.
The drones are said to be designed for attack purposes, rather than reconnaissance.
The EEAS, however, is yet to confirm three crucial points of information: whether the factory is producing lethal drones, whether those drones have already been shipped to Russia, and whether Beijing is aware of Moscow’s weapons programme.
Talks between the EEAS and Beijing are ongoing to clarify the situation.
“We don’t have more than that. We don’t have clear evidence of what’s going on,” said a high-ranking EU official, speaking on Friday on condition of anonymity.
“It’s difficult to believe it’s happening without the knowledge or complete lack of knowledge of the (Chinese) authorities.”
Diplomats in Brussels have described the evidence as “convincing” and warned that, if eventually confirmed, the supply of drones from China to Russia would represent a major escalation of unpredictable consequences for the war.
Until now, the EU has accused Beijing of supplying Moscow with dual-use goods and advanced technology that can be used with military intent. As a result, the bloc sanctioned a handful of companies in Hong Kong and mainland China. The penalties, though, never concerned the direct supply of complete weapons.
Beijing has denied any involvement in the invasion and insists it maintains an equidistant position, which the West widely interprets as pro-Russian. When the Reuters story came out in September, Beijing said it was not aware of any Russian project in Xinjiang.
Without China’s undercover help, a diplomat said, “Russia couldn’t wage this war.”
“There should be consequences,” the diplomat added, noting the suspicions currently on the table were “very serious” and deserved greater explanation.
The obscurity regarding Russia’s reported weapons programme in China makes it difficult to predict the sort of sanctions, if any, the EU could impose. “What we have now is not as solid that we can act accordingly,” the high-ranking EU official cautioned.
Russia has deployed lethal drones at a large scale in its war of aggression to destroy Ukraine’s power infrastructure and civilian buildings, killing hundreds along the way.
The reports come at a critical time for the country, with Russian forces making significant gains on the ground and North Korean troops joining the fight in the Kursk region. It also coincides with the election of Donald Trump as US President, who has promised to revise military aid to Ukraine and strike a deal to end the war “in 24 hours.”
EU foreign affairs ministers are expected to discuss the issue of China-made drones when they meet on Monday for a meeting in Brussels.
