China’s increasingly aggressive activity around Taiwan and other flashpoints in East Asia could trigger a wider conflict even if Beijing is not prepared to launch a full-scale invasion, according to a China expert.
Gatestone Institute senior fellow Gordon Chang joined FOX Business’ Cheryl Casone on “Mornings with Maria” to discuss China’s military posture toward Taiwan and the risk that confrontations involving U.S. allies could spiral into a broader war.
Chang argued that turmoil at the top of China’s military has left Beijing less prepared for a major operation against Taiwan. He pointed to vacancies on the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission, saying the leadership body currently lacks operational officers.
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“China right now, its military, is in no position to invade the main island of Taiwan,” Chang said. “That means that China has to intimidate Taiwan into submission because it can’t use force.”
Chang said his larger concern is that Beijing could stumble into a conflict through confrontations elsewhere in the region. He cited Chinese activity around Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, where tensions with the Philippines have persisted, as well as disputed islands in the East China Sea claimed by both China and Japan.
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“I do worry about China backing into a confrontation, and I think that may even be probable,” Chang said.
Those encounters, Chang warned, could become especially dangerous if Chinese President Xi Jinping finds himself unable to de-escalate after a confrontation begins.
“That’s how the war starts in East Asia,” Chang said. “It doesn’t start with Xi Jinping saying, I’m invading Taiwan this afternoon. It starts through an accident that no one can control.”
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Chang also argued that Beijing’s pressure campaign may be having the opposite effect on Taiwan, strengthening resistance to Chinese rule rather than pushing the island toward submission.
