Multiple conversations are ongoing on Sunday — some in person but most on the phone — as House Republicans try to lock in agreements for the big, beautiful bill.
Three areas are outstanding overall. Two are specific to the Budget Committee, which reconvenes Sunday night.
Republicans are trying to work out a final pact on green energy tax credits, which could be a major payfor in the bill. The other item is work requirements for Medicaid recipients — and when those kick in.
Fox News is told that prospective deals on this front will likely be handshake pacts or “gentlemen’s agreements,” as it was phrased to Fox News.
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The other issue in question is the SALT deduction. That refers to state and local tax breaks for high-tax states. That provision is of the utmost importance to court the votes of moderate Republicans from New York and California.
The “SALT caucus” wanted a tax write-off, which might cost as much as $600 billion. The new proposal only costs $230 billion. Fox News is told they are trying to forge a compromise which grants a higher SALT deduction at the beginning of the bill’s implementation — and then dials that back over the 10-year budgetary window for the bill.
Remember, this measure must not add to the deficit over that decade-long budgetary timeframe in order to qualify for a special process to avoid a filibuster in the Senate.
Fox is told that nothing will change in the bill before the Budget Committee on Sunday night. The White House is currently addressing how to implement possible changes with a “manager’s amendment” before the Rules Committee later this week. That would finalize and lock in stone the actual text of the bill.
Fox is told that the GOP leadership believes they are certainly within range. The GOP brass is generally feeling good at where they stand, “so long as people don’t start adding things,” said one senior House Republican leadership source.
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The overall goal is to post the text of the bill early this week and go to the Rules Committee on Wednesday with a possible vote on Thursday. But one senior GOP source told Fox the timetable could be expedited with a Tuesday Rules Committee meeting — where changes would be made — and maybe go to the floor on Wednesday.
Now, on to what will likely happen on Sunday night in the Budget Committee:
The resolution, mashing together the text from all the other committees, failed on Friday afternoon. The process can’t move forward unless they get the measure out of the Budget Committee. Hence, Sunday’s 10 p.m. ET meeting.
There will be little if any debate — it’s only about that math. Either the GOP leadership and the White House have satisfied the concerns of those who voted nay or they haven’t. In fact, if things go swimmingly, this could be wrapped up after 20 minutes or so.
Here’s what it will look like:
The first vote is the “motion to reconsider” the failed Friday vote. If that fails, they are stuck.
But if they get over that hurdle, it’s on to an actual re-vote of what failed on Friday. This is the key vote. If the Budget Committee greenlights the package at this stage, it’s on to the Rules Committee this week and then the floor.
There will be five non-binding votes after that key vote on issues we don’t need to worry about.
