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This is cobbled together from speaking to multiple sources on both sides of the Capitol.
The House is now aiming to vote Thursday on the “clean” interim spending bill which would fund the government through November 27. But Republicans must first get the bill through the House. Several senior House Republican sources said that they were still talking to the “usual suspects.” Republicans can only lose two votes pass a bill on their own. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) expressed confidence he could hold all of his Democrats together and oppose the bill. Jeffries said that will be the focus of a Democratic Caucus on Thursday.
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It is also still not a done deal that the House would move on Thursday. This could slip to Friday.
There is now the distinct possibility of a weekend session in the Senate, potentially Saturday.
Here’s why:
If the House approves the government funding package, this must go through two rounds of “cloture” to break a filibuster. That needs 60 yeas. It is advantageous to Senate Republicans to have the House approve the bill Thursday. If so, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) can file cloture to set up a test vote on Saturday. By rule, the Senate cannot take that test vote without an “intervening day.”
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To wit:
Let’s say the House theoretically approves the bill on Thursday. Thune gets the bill on Thursday and files cloture to cut off debate and break a filibuster. Friday is the “intervening day.” That tees up a procedural vote just to get onto the bill (needing 60 yeas) on Saturday in the Senate.
But if the House votes (and passes) the CR on Friday, none of this can happen until Sunday.
There’s the rub:
Multiple Senate Republicans want to attend Charlie Kirk’s funeral in Arizona on Sunday.
So, a Saturday scenario is much better for the GOP.
Why not wait until Monday, you may ask?
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Well, the Senate is scheduled to be out for Rosh Hashanah next week. Same with the House. Rosh Hashanah begins at sundown Monday and runs through nightfall Wednesday. So the Senate could punt and deal with next Thursday. However, the Senate also needs to take another procedural vote down the road if it could ever get 60 yeas (more on that in a moment) to finish the bill. So it may be helpful to do this sooner rather than later.
That said, one senior Senate GOP source suggested to Fox that the Senate could remain in session through Rosh Hashanah to deal with the procedural steps. That could be interpreted as a direct sleight to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the highest-ranking Jewish figure in American political history.
Keep in mind, the government is funded through 11:59:59 pm et on September 30. So they have time. But the period is collapsed because of the scheduled recess next week.
Regardless, the Senate needs 60 yeas to break a filibuster. Republicans only have 53 votes in the Senate. 52 if Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) opposes an interim spending bill.
This is why Republicans are trying to blame a potential shutdown on the Democrats. And Democrats are saying they need something (likely a renewal of Obamacare subsidies) in exchange for their votes.
And there will likely be a lot more drama between now and the end of the month.
