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Yes, it’s scripted. Yes, it kicks off with that awkward 20-minute prelude where the Commission chief strolls through the hemicycle, shaking hands and kissing cheeks with party leaders as if she’s just been reunited with long-lost friends.
And yes, it can drag on for more than four hours once you add in MEPs reactions.
But the end-of-summer classic known as the State of the European Union (SOTEU) speech will still set the tone for EU politics after the summer break, even after one of the busiest Augusts in memory.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has always treated her previous addresses as a three-part performance (rarely engaging with MEPs’ concerns), rather than a single statement followed by a proper debate.
So, each time she speaks it’s worth listening for those who follow EU affairs.
Thankfully, there are plenty of ways to follow it live, from webstream to Euronews’ liveblog. But to really follow it like a pro, here’s your guide to what to watch, what to ignore, and where the real stories will be hiding.
Announcements are the point
The SOTEU was designed as Europe’s equivalent of the US State of the Union: a high-profile moment for the Commission president to set priorities.
So, if you expect spicy developments on issues such as Pfizergate, forget the idea that Parliament uses this moment to hold the Commission to account.
Over the years, the SOTEU has turned into a one-woman show for von der Leyen to drop announcements. For instance, she used the stage in 2020 to launch the European Health Union, while in 2021, she announced she’d roll out the Chips Act.
Because the Commission has already clarified most of its agenda in its work programme, don’t expect a flood of new policies or for von der Leyen to rewrite her own political guidelines.
But symbolic gestures catch attention, as when in 2022 she declared a European Year of Skills to tackle labour shortages or when in 2023 she first launched the “strategic dialogue” on agriculture, a format that has since spread to other sectors.
Do expect some symbolic add-ons or a surprise name-drop that will dominate headlines: Remember when Mario Draghi was casually announced as the author of a forthcoming competitiveness report last time?
But look out for market-moving moments…
A newer trend is the SOTEU’s impact on financial markets.
When von der Leyen announced an anti-subsidy probe into Chinese EVs in 2023, European carmakers’ stocks spiked within the hour, with Renault rising by 3.5%, Volkswagen by 2.7%, BMW by 2%, and Mercedes by 1%.
Besides, investors would be wise to watch closely also since Von der Leyen has a taste for big money pledges too.
Pandemic preparedness funds dropped into the 2021 SOTEU? €50 billion. A European Hydrogen Bank? €3 billion. There’s always cash in the speech.
…and for cryptic messages
The SOTEU is also known for sweeping phrases that sound profound but often lack clarity.
In 2023, von der Leyen declared that her approach to China would be “de-risk, not decouple”, whatever that slogan actually meant.
That year she also hinted at enlargement with a mysterious “30+” formula: “We started the Defence Union at 27. We can finish it at 30+.” Which countries are included? Don’t ask.
Grand claims about delivery also deserve scrutiny.
In her last speech, she boasted that 90% of her 2019 political guidelines had been implemented. But some months before, the European Parliament’s own research service calculated the figure closer to two-thirds, with only half of submitted initiatives fully adopted.
What she doesn’t say
Another pro-tip for following the SOTEU: what goes unsaid is just as telling.
Agriculture stakeholders still recall that the sector was barely mentioned in the 2020 SOTEU, a perceived slight that fed months of discontent.
Still on the topic, in 2023, she skipped over the Farm to Fork strategy entirely, replacing it with a vague “strategic dialogue”. Many took that as a quiet retreat from the previous flagship EU food policy.
This year, observers will watch closely to see whether parts of the Green Deal — once the centrepiece of her mandate — fade into the background.
Language is politics
Applause is rarer these days, especially with a Parliament that’s more hostile. But don’t just listen for claps. Listen for the language.
Von der Leyen is a skilled polyglot, flipping easily between German, French and English, and even reads Italian when needed.
These choices are rarely accidental. In 2023, she switched to German while talking about farmers — not a coincidence, given her own European People Party’s election strategy to champion agriculture.
A language shift can be a signal of who she is addressing — whether it be domestic constituencies, European partners, or international audiences.
Narratives (and maybe guests?)
The Commission president is surrounded by storytellers and often frames policy announcements in personal or symbolic narratives.
Her Cancer Plan was launched with the phrase “that’s personal”. The Moria refugee camp fire in 2020 became the moral trigger for her migration pact announced in her 2020 SOTEU.
In previous years, she has also been accompanied by symbolic guests: Paralympic champion Bebe Vio in 2021, and Ukraine’s First Lady Olena Zelenska in 2022. The tradition was dropped in 2023, but maybe this year she’ll arrive with a guest again.
Don’t expect nerves
Whether the chamber is hostile or not, this is von der Leyen’s turf.
She’s been doing SOTEUs since 2020 — and with Wednesday’s speech, she becomes the record-holder for the most delivered by a Commission president.
Political group leaders and lawmakers will criticise her, sure. But she rarely engages. She sees the SOTEU as her own three-act performance, not a debate.
Whether she opts for a defensive stance or presses forward aggressively with her agenda, the expectation is the same: confidence, clarity of delivery, and little risk of misstep.
After all, the SOTEU is part spectacle, part policy horoscope. Watch the announcements, track what’s missing, note the language shifts.
But don’t expect Ursula von der Leyen to break a sweat while she does it.
