Slovenia’s ruling liberals and opposition right-wing populists were tied, according to nearly final preliminary figures in Sunday’s fiercely contested parliamentary election, signalling a time of political unpredictability in the central European nation.
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After tallying about 99% of the votes, the State Election Commission reported the centre-left Freedom Movement, led by Prime Minister Robert Golob, received 28.5% of the vote, while the right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party, or SDS, led by former premier Janez Jansa, a supporter of US President Donald Trump, received 28.1%.
With the nearly equal results, none of the main parties will have a majority in the 90-member parliament, and whoever forms a future government will have to depend on smaller parties that will act as kingmakers.
Speaking after the results were released, Prime Minister Golob expressed confidence his party will form the next government.
“Thank you to all of you, who have worked hard since last year, four years. To all of you who have fought in parliament for four years. To all of you who have done this campaign so that we could repeat our mandate,” Golob told his supporters.
“This is not something that is taken for granted, not at all, in Slovenia. In Slovenia, expectations were high and critically high. Let this be an inspiration to us because we have gained trust. This trend can also be reversed, and we can really think about moving forward into the future under the free sun,” he added.
Polls reflect deep divisions
The vote on Sunday was seen as a key test of whether the EU member nation stays on its liberal course or sways toward the right and reflects deep divisions among Slovenia’s 1.7 million eligible voters.
Golob’s government has been a strong liberal voice in the 27-nation EU. SDS leader Jansa is a populist-style politician and a close ally of nationalist Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
The vote came after an election campaign marred by claims, first made by a group of activists and journalists, that a string of secret video recordings showing alleged government-tied corruption aimed to sway the voters.
Authorities have opened a probe into the allegations that Jansa’s party and a private, foreign agency were linked to the recordings. Jansa has acknowledged having contacts with a Black Cube agency adviser but denied the allegations of election interference.
The company, run by two former Israeli intelligence agents, has been involved in a number of controversies over the years, including an undercover operation on behalf of the film mogul Harvey Weinstein to discredit his accusers, allegations it denies.
During his most recent term in office (2020–2022), Jansa, 67, a seasoned politician and former communist dissident, was accused of suppressing media freedoms and weakening Slovenia’s legal system, allegations he has refuted.
A former energy company manager, 59-year-old Golob and his party were seen in 2022 as a new hope for disillusioned voters.
The government, however, has since been shaken by a series of reshuffles, problems with health care reform, and frequent changes in tax policy that reflect an air of inconsistency.
Internationally, Golob’s government has taken a strongly pro-Palestinian stance, recognizing a Palestinian state in 2024 and banning top Israeli officials from entry.
Jansa, on the other hand, is pro-Israel and has strongly criticized Palestinian recognition.
Slovenia, an Alpine nation of 2 million people, became a member of NATO and the EU in 2004 and has routinely switched between the two blocs since it broke away from the former Yugoslavia in 1991.
